An Impromptu Reply

7 November 2014


          Riding from the office up the hill yesterday over the lunch hour, as has become my custom, I was pleasantly surprised to encounter a rather nice Mule Deer buck which nonchalantly strode across the road right under the nose of my handlebars and into the Chief Charlo school yard. As I was a bit later than usual, the school children missed the scene having already gone back in for their afternoon lessons. It struck me as odd seeing a Mule Deer as this was a new first. It was such a slow and deliberate like ordeal that I found myself studying the tail and horns, the color of the body and the size of the ears to double check my mental facilities. The workers are in the process of digging a tunnel below the section for Moose Can Gully and expanding the road. I believe this is for types such as myself who choose to ride their bicycle to work or others who more frequently walk up and down the road. There are few riders I frequent by riding to and fro, however. I’m not sure if it is money well spent or no as property taxes in the region are quite high. The city recently elected to pass a $42 million parks and recreation trails bond. As an avid user of the regional trails, one would think I’d readily support such measures; yet, it seems to me there might be a better way to go about such things.
          Your letter was most welcome, stirring emotions not felt in quite a while. Perhaps, as noted above with the local bond issue, the people have chosen government as their medium of conduct. Sorry to hear you chose not to participate in the electoral process this cycle. Hopefully during the Presidential election a few years hence you’ll reconsider. It appears your state followed the trend of the evening, electing Elephants to the House and Senate. This evidently was the trend of the evening nationwide. If nothing else, perhaps a little more gridlock will curtail additional expenditures over the next few years. There’s talk of addressing the corporate tax issue, which would certainly be a good thing as you alluded to in your epistle.
          Your harkening back to the reparations following WWI had me reviewing the history and attempting to understand better the issue at the time. I believe your general argument holds today. Ultimately the period of excessive debt imposed by bankers resulted in a significant financial crisis. Marshall learned a thing or two from the prior experience following the next round. I’m not sure your argument that the Austrians have it will pan out, though that is the school of my choice as well. Time will indeed tell. The fact is that today central banks are major creditors to government treasuries. This is largely the result of the crisis, the intent having been to stabilize the employment crisis with the hopes of being able to gradually correct matters, righting the ship. Although some CBs have been engaged in this activity prior to 08/09. Imagine the effect on markets, if you will, of these “programs.” Is anything true anymore? It is perplexing, causing one to shake his head, listening to the academics expound the only solution as being for governments to spend more aggressively (on infrastructure or whatever). You are correct in your assessment that this is what brought about many of the imbalances witnessed today and nature is saying in her witty way, enough! That is why your comment about time largely being the solution with governments spending less and less is, I too believe, the correct path refocusing the emphasis on employment in the private sector. Can this be done in a tranquil manner? This remains to be seen. Is inflation lurking around the bend? Perhaps. Today everyone is focused on deflation, which is the first development in a credit related crisis. How it is dealt with leads to the next. Following the trail below a recent Wolf editorial on how Japan found itself in its present predicament, it seems clear some folks are confusing disinflation and deflation. The two are not the same. Recall, deflation sinks the indebted. However, imagine a price decline in say higher ed, or medicine, or housing; perhaps even foods (though unlikely). Good for consumers, bad for some employers, wages and certainly indebted governments and individuals. I’m not going to prognosticate further, simply concluding that your insights, Periwinkle, are generally, as usual, on the mark. This pertains to the immigration issue analysis as well.
          Not much else to report at the moment. Lolo is snow covered, though it’s been quite pleasant lately. We’ve not been hunting as often, which is okay, really. High School soccer recently concluded and two of the Missoula teams fared well at state. A mountain lion killed some sheep in the Deer Creek area and lions are evidently frequenting our neighborhood. Feel free to insert me in quotes whenever in your texts, these were on the mark as well.

Warm regards as always,


PS. By the way, one additional thought pertains to your Post Script. I look forward to going over Rosen’s report as well. It seems clear that there is a drive for actual reform in the country, yet one is uncertain of Mr. Xi’s larger aim. I do believe, without question, it is in America’s interest to export goods to the emerging states. Why is this even a subject for debate? This does not mean that our technology has to be transferred, which is the most often cited concern as has occurred in the past with hostile states. It is best to allow trade to bring nations together rather than allow governments to drive them apart.

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